5 things to watch for in today’s Conservative leadership result
After a year of campaigning, it’s mostly over but the counting for the 13 candidates in the Conservative leadership race.
- Listen to CBC Radio’s The House: Conservatives make their choice
- Follow CBC’s live coverage of the Conservative leadership convention
- Conservative leadership candidates lay out vision for party in final speeches
As the final few votes are cast in person and the tabulation machines set to work Saturday, here’s what to watch for when the results are revealed at 5 p.m. ET.
Points, not votes
As campaigns work to pull out every last vote to the 14 polling stations open until 4 p.m. ET Saturday, it’s important to remember that when it comes time for the result, the number of votes cast are simply the means to the end.
Every riding is worth 100 points: the votes of members in that riding determine how many points each candidate gets for that constituency.
Candidates are aiming for 16,901 points to win the leadership.
As candidates drop off through subsequent ballots, the points for that riding reallocate according to those voters’ second, third or subsequently-ranked choices.
As results unfold, it’s a race to see which candidate can rack up 50 per cent of the total points, not total votes.
Public opinion polling hasn’t measured riding-level support, but campaigns have targeted votes riding-by-riding from the start.
There were 108 ridings with over 1,000 members up for grabs. There were also, however, about 75-80 constituencies with short membership rolls, where candidates could score a lot of points with relatively few votes.
There were over 259,000 eligible voters in this race. Despite some voting difficulties, the party said over 132,000 ballots were received by Friday’s mail deadline.
Several thousand members are expected to vote in person Saturday, bringing the expected voter turnout over 50 per cent.
The party’s base membership was less than 100,000 before this race. A turnout significantly higher than that suggests a significant number of new members were engaged in picking this leader.
If the party gets significantly more than 50 per cent turnout, it can boast that more of its members were engaged in this race than the most recent races for the Liberal and NDP leaderships.
Front-runner Maxime Bernier has said he needs a good turnout among new members, including those who signed up to support Kevin O’Leary, in order to win.
A strong showing for candidates seen as friendly to the party establishment, such as Andrew Scheer or Erin O’Toole, could signal that the base turned out.
The first announcement, promised around 5 p.m. ET, will rank and reveal the points for all 14 candidates (O’Leary dropped out too late to remove his name from the ballot.) The lowest-ranked candidate will drop off, and his or her votes will be reallocated to their second-choice candidates.
The winner will have been tabulated at this point, but the party isn’t going to share it right away. Instead, to build drama and help members understand the result, it’s going to be teased out gradually.
A second announcement, expected after a short break, will reveal the next six candidates to drop off and reallocate those votes.
The third announcement, which will lower the field to four remaining candidates (assuming no one has reached 50 per cent) may be the one to watch, as candidates with more significant support bases bow out and those second choices take effect. At this point, it will be more clear whose support is growing and whose may be stalled.
After that, announcements will only drop candidates one by one.
Because no voter was obliged to mark more than one choice, and others may mark up to ten, it’s difficult to predict how many ballots will still be alive in each round.
The number of so-called “dead ballots” may grow significantly near the end, meaning a smaller, perhaps much smaller, subgroup of voters may decide this race if it takes many rounds to produce a winner.
Most expect Bernier to have the lead when the first choices are revealed.
But the size of his lead could indicate what’s in store. If he gets over 35 per cent support he’s going to be hard to beat. Even if he doesn’t, a lead bigger than five points in combination with a strong second-choice showing for Bernier could put him over the top.
If he doesn’t have this kind of a lead, the plot thickens.
- ANALYSIS: Dissecting the paths to victory for the 13 Conservative candidates
- Here’s how the Conservative vote could go down, ballot by ballot
Watch for signs of overlapping support for like-minded candidates — social conservatives Brad Trost and Pierre Lemieux for example. If Trost were to drop off first, Lemieux may see an uptick as Trost’s supporters migrate to him as their second choice.
Much about this race has been complex: the large number of candidates, the ranked ballot, the larger-than-expected number of members eligible to vote and the logistics of combining a national mail vote across a huge country with in-person polling stations across multiple time zones.
Will the result be ready on time and unfold without a hitch?
Some describe the party as overstaffed and well-prepared to deliver the results on time Saturday. Others worry that the machines will have a glitch, there will be difficulties with one of the polling stations or some other late-breaking controversy will bog things down.
Live broadcasters hope none of this happens. As the well-worn news cliche goes, time will tell.
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Eligible voters by province:
Newfoundland and Labrador: 1,194.
Nova Scotia: 4,692.
Prince Edward Island: 1,188.
New Brunswick: 3,674.
British Columbia: 34,686.
Northwest Territories: 302.